The current intensity this advisory will be set at 120 kt, indicating a remarkable intensification rate of 65 kt in the past 24 hours.Ī little bit of additional intensification is possible in the short term and the latest intensity forecast now peaks Darby as a 125-kt hurricane in 12 hours, very close to the GFS-SHIPS guidance. I also suspect the eyewall cloud tops have warmed a tad due to diurnal fluctuations and could cool once again during the typical nighttime max. However, very small tropical cyclones like Darby are often underestimated using objective Dvorak guidance, as was seen during similarly small systems, like Dorian in 2019 when it near the Bahamas. The latest UW-CIMSS objective Dvorak estimate has stabilized somewhat at T6.1/117 kt despite the warming eye temperature. The presentation on visible images is similarly spectacular, with a few mesovorticies seen rotating around in the eye exhibiting a classic stadium effect, and the GOES-GLM occasionally showing some inner core flashes. While convective cloud tops associated with the eyewall convection have not cooled much more, hovering between -65 to -75 C, the eye temperature has warmed further, with the warmest pixel fluctuating between +18-20C. HST:ĭarby’s satellite presentation continues to be very impressive, and has improved further since this morning. Stay tuned as this long term forecast becomes more refined through the week.”įrom the National Hurricane Center at 11 a.m. “In this forecast scenario, the enhanced tropical moisture field could bring some heavy showers over the weekend, likely in the Saturday night through Sunday time frame. “The current National Hurricane Center forecast has Darby passing over 140 degrees longitude and moving into the Central Pacific Thursday as a weak tropical storm with continued weakening into a tropical depression by Saturday,” the National Weather Service in Honolulu said on Monday at 10 a.m. Over the last several hours, Darby’s maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph with higher gusts, making the storm a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.įorecasters in Hawaiʻi say they are currently focused on what becomes of Hurricane Darby as it approaches the Central Pacific. (BIVN) – Major Hurricane Darby, about 2,000 miles east southeast of Hilo, is slowly making its way west across the Eastern Pacific. Image from interactive map showing the forecast track of Hurricane Darby as of Monday afternoon courtesy NOAA / NWS
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